聯(lián)合國(guó)(UN)在10月16日舉行年度“世界糧食日”(World Food Day)慶祝活動(dòng)，提醒人們關(guān)注全球還有8.54億營(yíng)養(yǎng)不良人口。聯(lián)合國(guó)警告，“還有太多人在挨餓”。而這一警告似乎比以往更為焦慮。

    隨著小麥、玉米和大米等主食需求日益上升，推動(dòng)糧食價(jià)格上漲，為挨餓人口尋找糧食正成為一項(xiàng)日益艱巨的任務(wù)。這導(dǎo)致所有國(guó)家（無(wú)論富國(guó)還是窮國(guó)）都在競(jìng)相爭(zhēng)奪糧食供應(yīng)。

    對(duì)于那些已經(jīng)在與政治動(dòng)蕩、干旱或戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)相抗?fàn)幍膰?guó)家而言，糧食安全并不是一個(gè)新問(wèn)題。但自20世紀(jì)70年代初發(fā)生全球糧食短缺以來(lái)，這是較為穩(wěn)定的國(guó)家首次也在為糧食安全感到擔(dān)憂。英國(guó)商業(yè)農(nóng)民團(tuán)體(Commercial Farmers Group)主席亨利•費(fèi)爾(Henry Fell)表示：“全球局勢(shì)正在傳遞這樣的信號(hào)：我們正在走出糧食供應(yīng)豐富期，進(jìn)入一個(gè)糧食供應(yīng)更為短缺的時(shí)期。”

    When the United Nations held its annual World Food Day last week to publicise the plight of the 854m malnourished people around the world, its warning that there “are still too many hungry people” was a little more anxious than usual.

    Finding food to feed the hungry is becoming an increasingly difficult task as growing demand for staples such as wheat, corn and rice brings higher prices. That is leading all nations – rich and poor – to compete for food supplies.

    Food security is not a new concern for countries that have battled political instability, droughts or wars. But for the first time since the early 1970s, when there were global food shortages, it is starting to concern more stable nations as well. “The whole global picture is flagging up signals that we're moving out of a period of abundant food supply into a period in which food is going to be in much shorter supply,” says Henry Fell, chairman of Britain's Commercial Farmers Group.
 
    隨著農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價(jià)格達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，食品生產(chǎn)商們也相繼抬高價(jià)格。法國(guó)奶制品集團(tuán)達(dá)能(Danone)本月就表示將提價(jià)10%，成為最新一家反映成本上升嚴(yán)峻態(tài)勢(shì)的公司。隨著這種現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)，世界各國(guó)開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑它們能否養(yǎng)活自己。

    小麥和牛奶價(jià)格已飆升至歷史新高，而玉米和大豆的價(jià)格也維持在20世紀(jì)90年代平均水平之上。大米和咖啡的價(jià)格躍升至10年高點(diǎn)，某些國(guó)家的肉類價(jià)格最近上漲了50%。

    “世界正在逐漸喪失以往用來(lái)抵御（市場(chǎng)）嚴(yán)重動(dòng)蕩的緩沖器，”聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織(Food and Agriculture Organisation)糧食貿(mào)易司司長(zhǎng)阿普杜勒禮薩•阿巴斯安(Abdolreza Abbassian)表示。“現(xiàn)在有一種恐慌的苗頭。”

    有些糧食價(jià)格上漲是由于暫時(shí)性問(wèn)題或動(dòng)植物疫情所致，如澳大利亞的干旱和中國(guó)的豬藍(lán)耳病。但隨著中國(guó)和印度日益富裕的人口需要更多的蛋白質(zhì)，亞洲存在更為持久的需求增長(zhǎng)；生物燃料業(yè)也一樣。這些進(jìn)展將在中期內(nèi)對(duì)價(jià)格起到支撐作用。到2010年，生物燃料業(yè)將有望消耗美國(guó)玉米產(chǎn)量的30%左右。

    世界糧農(nóng)組織估計(jì)，在下一個(gè)10年內(nèi)，那些結(jié)構(gòu)性新趨勢(shì)將會(huì)把農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價(jià)格從過(guò)去10年的平均水平向上推升20%至50%。

    As agricultural commodities trade at record high levels, causing one food manufacturer after another to put up prices – Danone, the French dairy group, this month became the latest to reflect the severity of the cost increases when it said it would increase prices by 10 per cent – countries are starting to question whether they can afford to keep feeding themselves.

    Wheat and milk prices have surged to all-time highs while those for corn and soyabeans stand at well above their 1990s averages. Rice and coffee have jumped to 10-year records and meat prices have risen recently by up to 50 per cent in some countries.

    “The world is gradually losing the buffer that it used to have to protect against big swings [in the market],” says Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the grains trading group at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation. “There is a sense of panic.”

    Some of the price rises are the result of temporary problems, such as drought in Australia, and diseases, such as blue-ear in Chinese pigs. But there is a more permanent increase in demand from Asia, as richer populations in China and India demand more protein, and from the biofuel industry, which is on course to consume about 30 per cent of the US corn crop in 2010 – developments that will underpin prices for the medium term.

The FAO estimates that those structural new trends will help to push the cost of agricultural commodities in the next decade between 20 and 50 per cent above their last 10-year average.